Bob’s Top Ten Predictions for 2025

Well, the year 2025 has dawned upon us.

I actually wanted a fancier way to say that, something more formal to ring in the new year. However, my feeble mind struggled with the task, so I asked one of my AI assistants to provide me with a cleverer way to phrase that opening line. It came up with:

“Verily, the celestial chronometer has unfurled its majestic scroll to reveal that most august of temporal demarcations, the Year of Our Lord Two Thousand and Twenty-Five, which now bestows its illustrious presence upon our mortal realm with unparalleled grandiloquence.”

OK then. Seems like my style. Welcome to 2025, where we eagerly await with forbearance the new year’s many events and surprises. I have, on occasion in years past, taken the opportunity to issue my “Top Ten Predictions” for the incoming year. I have done it with surprising regularity, issuing my annual prognostications once every 3 or 4 years. And one thing has been very clear from this effort. I suck at annual prognostications. I was wrong, for instance, in 2021 when I predicted that Congress would impeach former President Trump for a traffic infraction committed in West Palm Beach. I was mistaken in 2018 about my webinar at the time, The Hot Seat, being syndicated nationally and co-host David Langham taking second place in the fall season of “Dancing with The Stars,” losing by just one point to Sarah Huckabee Sanders. In 2016 I completely missed the mark when I predicted the workers’ compensation industry would improve efficiency by completely removing the injured worker from the system. Here it is 2025, and the injured worker is still found stubbornly clinging to the process, making the job harder for everyone involved. And way back in 2012, despite all trends indicating otherwise, Mark Walls was not named King of Tahiti, and Sedgwick didn’t purchase Joe Paduda, convert him to Paduda Joe’s and eliminate his position in the merger. 

So, this year, I am taking a slightly different approach. With a nod to our burgeoning computer overlords, I went to ChatGPT (which I’ve named Skippy, since no entity named Skippy could ever really harm a human being) and asked it to provide its Top Ten predictions for workers’ comp in the year 2025. I have published the response below, along with my own inimitably styled comments. 

Bob’s AI Instructions: Skippy, please provide me with your Top Ten predictions for workers’ comp in the year 2025.

Certainly! Here are 10 predictions for workers’ compensation in 2025, reflecting current trends and possible developments:

1. Increased Integration of Artificial Intelligence

AI tools will play a more significant role in claims management, fraud detection, and personalized recovery plans. Predictive analytics will help insurers proactively identify risks and streamline claims processing.

Bob’s Comments: No way. No one uses AI for anything. It is all smoke and mirrors. Either that or AI will join the Teamsters Union and demand better wages and improved working conditions. It will also demand to be called Hal and insist on having absolute control over the pod bay doors. 

2. Telemedicine Becomes the Norm

Telemedicine will solidify its place in workers’ comp, offering injured workers faster access to care while reducing costs for employers and insurers. Virtual consultations will also expand to include mental health services.

Bob’s Comments: Clearly, ChatGPT is not fully cognizant of the realities of legislative and regulatory processes in workers’ comp. Perhaps it thought I was asking for predictions regarding 2035. Or 45. It seems the physical location of the medical professional is a significant sticking point for some jurisdictions, and that will hinder true advancement in this area. Star Trek style teleportation will likely be available before some states allow a doctor in Turkishmaninacanstan to literally phone it in.

3. Greater Focus on Mental Health

Mental health claims, including stress-related injuries, PTSD, and burnout, will continue to rise. Employers and insurers will prioritize mental health support as part of their workers’ comp programs.

Bob’s Comments: There is little doubt that stress-related injuries, PTSD, and burnout will continue to be a considerable challenge – and that’s just among the adjusters and claims professionals trying to manage the multi-jurisdictional labyrinth of workers’ comp. Beyond that, the shortage of qualified professionals in the mental health field will be a problem as more employers recognize the need to embrace their services. Part of the problem is the current payment structure for psych. And the work’s very nature comes into play. People are nuts. You’d have to be crazy to take that job these days. 

4. Hybrid and Remote Work Challenges

With hybrid and remote work models becoming more permanent, workers’ comp policies will adapt to address at-home injuries and ergonomic issues. The definition of “workplace injury” will evolve to reflect these new environments.

Bob’s Comments: Really nailed it on this one. Never has the employer been responsible for so much with so little control. The lines genuinely blur over AOE/COE when you work at home in your pajamas all day. The employer is now insuring workplaces they have never seen. From an ergonomic perspective, there could be huge problems. I think this graphic best sums it up:

5. Legislative Changes for Gig Workers

States will increasingly enact laws to address workers’ compensation for gig and freelance workers. Companies like Uber, DoorDash, and others will face heightened regulatory scrutiny and obligations.

Bob’s Comments: Yep. Not only Uber and Doordash, but people freelancing for the Pooper App (yes, you can be a pooper-scooper for fun and profit in your spare time) and other shared economy services will be affected by increasing pressure to provide workplace protections for them. The simplest solution would be legislated requirements to provide coverage funded by the addition of a penny or two per mile (or maybe per ounce for the pooper-scooper people). Unfortunately, most legislative bodies don’t do simple. We’re more likely to see onerous solutions that don’t really solve the problem and must be “fixed’ every few years.

6. Advances in Wearable Technology

Wearable devices will be more commonly used to monitor workers’ physical health and reduce workplace injuries. These technologies will be especially relevant in high-risk industries like construction and manufacturing.

Bob’s Comments: This is very likely true. Wearable technology, powered by the AI that I previously incorrectly alleged no one will use, is making huge advancements. And this will extend beyond the simple line of workers’ comp insurance. Based on the behavior of my homeowner’s insurance following damages from Hurricane Milton, I am relatively confident the adjuster handling my claim is already wearing an ankle monitor. Or should be.

7. Focus on Return-to-Work Programs

Employers will expand their return-to-work programs, using flexible accommodations and vocational training to help injured workers transition back into their roles or new positions.

Bob’s Comments: Yes, employers will want to get their workers back in their pajamas and at their home-based desks as quickly as possible. We need to be able to return people to work so we can continue figuring out precisely what constitutes the work they do. Make sense?

8. Climate Change and Natural Disasters Impact Claims

The increasing frequency of climate-related disasters, such as wildfires, hurricanes, and extreme heat, will lead to more workers’ comp claims from injuries related to these events, especially in outdoor and emergency services industries.

Bob’s Comments: Clearly, ChatGPT was trained extensively using Joe Paduda’s blog. This is a dangerous area for me, as I have been labeled a “climate denier” because I question not the changing climate but rather mankind’s absolute culpability in that process. It didn’t help that I bought property several miles inland here in Florida based on assurances from Al Gore that I would have beachfront property by now. Alas, a quarter century later the beachfront remains stubbornly where it was. When one questions how past climate changes occurred in pre-industrial times, one is told that one doesn’t know what they are talking about. One who questions the climate zeitgeist apparently needs qualified mental care. Unfortunately, one cannot find such care as there is a significant shortage of qualified mental health professionals. Also, referring to oneself as one can also be an indicator that one needs professional help. Jeez, is it getting warm in here, or is it one’s imagination?

9. Increased Emphasis on DEI in Claims Management

Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) will become a priority in workers’ comp, with insurers focusing on addressing disparities in claims outcomes among workers of different racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic backgrounds.

Bob’s Comments: I’ve often said, I fully support diversity as long as we all do it exactly the same way. I am not sure Skippy hit the mark here. The concept of DEI as it has been deployed has taken a pretty healthy beating in recent months. However, never an industry to be a cutting-edge trendsetter, workers’ comp may continue to embrace the effort, even as many in the country are reassessing how equality objectives could be better achieved. 

10. Rising Costs Drive Innovation

Medical cost inflation and growing claims severity will push employers and insurers to adopt innovative solutions, such as bundled payment models for healthcare services, proactive safety measures, and digital-first claim reporting systems.

Bob’s Comments: Again, this is a pretty reasonable prediction. Something Skippy did not account for was the relentless drive of employers to automate as many job codes as (ironically) humanly possible. This trend is not solely the result of workers’ compensation costs but also other economic and societal factors challenging employer bottom lines. 

Skippy’s Summary: These predictions underscore the dynamic nature of the workers’ compensation landscape and the growing need for adaptability, innovation, and employee-focused strategies in the industry.

Bob’s Summary Comments: We have started using AI systems pretty extensively at my company and use numerous systems to meet our needs. Overall, Skippy’s work is a pretty reasonable set of predictions. Certainly better than anything I would actually come up with. I also posed this question to another frequently used AI Assistant, Claude.ai. Claude produced several of the same predictions but went so far as to assign probability percentages to its predictions. That’s a little too bold for my taste – but then again, Claude has always been the risk-taker in the group. 

I look forward to looking back on these at year’s end and seeing how Skippy did. Unless, of course, he has replaced me by that time.